سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۴
محل انتشار: اولین کارگاه مشترک ایران و کره در مدلسازی اقلیم
تعداد صفحات: ۱۹
Iman Babaeian – I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization, Climatological Research Institute (CRI), Mashhad
Won Tae kwon – Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), Climate Research Lab., Seoul, Korea
Eun-Soon lm – Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), Climate Research Lab., Seoul, Korea
J. B. Jamali –
have been studied using sequences of synthetic daily data that generated by perturbing historical data with climate scenarios that had been created from ECHOG data in different periods. Results showed that annual amount of rainfall, dry day length and wet day length will be increase by maximum 7%, 11% and 2% during 201Os, 2020s and 2030s, respectively. Meanwhile the amount of frost day will decreased by maximum 22% during same period, with the greatest in Cheju and the lowest in Daejeon. Hot day length will be increase by 19% as a mean. Mean decadal increase in temperature detected to be 0.9°C, 1.4°C and2.0°C in 2010s, 2020s and 2030s, respectively. Maximum and minimum changes in of radiation were detected in August and September with 4% and +6%. Absolute thresholds of major and extreme rainfalls have been increased significantly by 10%, 17% in future decades. In spite of increasing trend in mean amount of annual rainfall, an abrupt decrease is detected in 2010s.