سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۴

محل انتشار: اولین کارگاه مشترک ایران و کره در مدلسازی اقلیم

تعداد صفحات: ۱۵

نویسنده(ها):

Nastaran Rahimi – Research Scholar, Faculty of Env. Science, Azad Univ.,P.O.BOX 14665/165, Tehran-Iran
Sadeghi Shahdani – Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Imam Sadegh Univ.Tehran- Iran

چکیده:

Human health should be considered one essential criterion of the dangerous interference with the climate system. The ability to assess the human health impact of climate change, however, is still at a very early stage of development, In most cases, health outcomes cannot be simply correlated with climate factors. There are some studies about relationship between climate variables such as temperature, flooding, precipitation and amount of malaria. There is not any study at all in Iran about effects of climate change on amount of occurring malaria across the whole country or boundary provinces. The aim of this research is to determine the effects of climate changes on malaria in special provinces of Iran. In this research by using e-views soft wares and the last 24 years observed meteorological data and amount of malaria in Khorasan province, effects of maximum and minimum temperature with rain fall and flooding on occurring malaria are evaluated. Our results showed that with increasing flooding, amount of occurring malaria in the whole country and Khorasan Province would increase. Also by increasing maximum temperature, malaria occurrence will decrease. The effect of internal factors such as poverty, immigration, economical situation, etc in this boundary province is
the most factor for changing the amount of malaria. The climate changes factors are not very important for increasing amount of malaria in future in this province.