سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۴

محل انتشار: سمپوزیوم برآورد عدم قطعیت در مهندسی سد

تعداد صفحات: ۸

نویسنده(ها):

C. H. de A. C. MEDEIROS – Civil Eng., Senior Lecturer Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana – UEFS, Brazil

چکیده:

In this paper we intend to present a general and critical view about risk assessment techniques as it have been applied to dam safety, its limitations on taking into account a huge and unknown number of technical and non technical factors that as a result can lead of a wrong conclusion about safety of the dam. Probability risk assessment technique has been used by many but, unfortunately as far as dam risk analysis is concerned, so many things must be done to improve the reliability of the probability risk assessment technique such as those that deal with failure mechanisms, initiating events and sequence and more important, scattering of data and human errors including: lack of training, lack ofskill, misjudgment, personal motivation, lack of surveillance, management errors and so forth. The individual accident event and its connection into the chain of failure mechanism still are unknown. Therefore, as an example, probability failure ratio such as 10-4 dams / year has no meaning since it used to be calculated without taking into account, type of dam, geometry, geotechnical characteristics of embankment material, foundation, age, interfaces, state-of-art at time dam was built, etc. The probability risk assessment techniques can be so risk, once it is applied without a critical review about its ability to handle a huge number of uncertainties that used to be a common place in small dams, mainly.