سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۷

محل انتشار: هفتمین کنفرانس بین المللی روابط تجاری شرق و غرب آسیا : فرصت ها، چشم انداز و چالشها

تعداد صفحات: ۱۳

نویسنده(ها):

Tran Van Hoa – Research Professor, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, and Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+Plus Research Program Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia

چکیده:

While energy especially oil, crises and economic integration have been playing an important role in development and growth in East West Asia economies and their intertwining relations, only limited quantitative research on their impact has been arried out and reported for improved debate and credible policy use (ASEAN, 2008).This paper uses an econometric modelling innovation with features superior to existing methodologies, namely the endogenous gravity theory (eg, Tran Van Hoa,2004), to provide rigorous substantive evidence satisfying Kydland (2006) data-model consistency criterion to this impact study for reliable regional policy analysis. The paper first analyses the major economic and trade patterns between the Gulf states and ASEAN over the past three decades for relevant historical correlative support. Second, a new endogenous trade-growth model for these economies is constructed and estimated to provide substantive causal evidence on the impact. Implications ofthe findings for economic and trade policy development between the Gulf states and ASEAN are then discussed for possible uses by academic, business and government decision-makers.