سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۸

محل انتشار: اولین کنفرانس بین المللی مدیریت منابع آب

تعداد صفحات: ۶

نویسنده(ها):

S.A. Chavoshian – International Centre for Water Hazards and Risk Management (ICHARM), under the auspices of UNESCO Tsukuba, Japan
J. Magome – International Centre for Water Hazards and Risk Management (ICHARM), under the auspices of UNESCO Tsukuba, Japan
K. Takeuchi – University of Yamanashi, Global COE program on IRBM, Yamanashi, Japan Corresponding author
H. Ishidarir – University of Yamanashi, Global COE program on IRBM, Yamanashi, Japan Corresponding author

چکیده:

Arid and semi-arid areas are usually characterized by strong climatic contrasts and rivers suffering seasonal drought and occasional precipitation. Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM) have, in principle, the advantage of spatially reflecting hydrological responses of basin, which is important for the Integrated Water Resources Management. However, almost all distributed hydrological models have been primarily developed for humid areas. Arid and semi-arid areas have particular challenges that have received little attention. Based on this consideration, the purpose of this paper is to introduce a methodological study to deal with the main challenges of DHM application in arid and semi-arid areas. In order to deal with data scarcity, a new method for prediction in ungauged basins is developed and described. The new methodology uses globally covered data sets that are publicly available. The quality of these data sets, especially satellite-based precipitation data for Prediction in Ungauged Basin (PUB), is evaluated. A parsimonious version of BTOPMC (Block-wise use of TOPMODEL) is developed and “blindly” applied to the upstream of the Kajaki dam in the Helmand (Hirmand) river basin with an area of 48700km2 in Afghanistan. Using satellite-based snow cover data, 6-year snow water equivalent of basin is estimated from 2000 to 2006. Moreover, during the same period daily runoff is simulated by using global coverage data set as input data and proxy-catchment for the model’s parameter estimation. Despite the underestimation of the flow volume by all satellite-based precipitation data, the overall performance of their application is encouraging for long-term modelling in ungauged basins. The results give motivation for further development and application of the model in ungauged or poor-data basins of arid and semi-arid areas.