دانلود مقاله Integration of Artificial Neural Networks and Time serie s technique to Estimate Electrical Energy consumption
سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۵
محل انتشار: اولین کنفرانس بین المللی مدیریت و برنامه ریزی انرژی
تعداد صفحات: ۶
A.Azadeh – Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning and Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran
A.Kheirkhah – Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu- Ali Sina University, Hamadan,Iran
M. Saberi – Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu- Ali Sina University, Hamadan,Iran
trend. The multilayer perceptron with back propagation is used which is a supervised learning strategy and ideally suited to forecast problems.
Neural network is a strong rival of regression and time series in forecasting. In this paper shown that using neural networks with preprocessed input data would have less error than neural network with raw input data. Also it is shown that neural networks dominate time series approach from point of yielding less mean absolute percentage error( MAPE). The purpose of this model is to find the essential structure of data and eliminate the trend of it with preprocessing techniques to forecast future consumption with less error.