سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۶

محل انتشار: پنجمین کنفرانس بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

تعداد صفحات: ۸

نویسنده(ها):

Olga Gordeeva –

چکیده:

Nowadays in the process of development and creating of the life space in a city or a region its social, productive, transport and engineering infrastructures, take the form of complex human-machine systems Virtually, among complex systems (CS) we mark out technical ones (TS) which can be characterized by the following traits:
– the system’s orientation on a purpose (usually solution to functional and spatial problems);
– specific inner links between the subsystems and their elements making them a single whole, thus the result of TS performance is the result of the corresponding performance of its subsystems and elements.
– hierarchical structure of the TS which can be represented as a sequence of incorporated subsystems of various levels with each subsystem being managed on a higher level and provided with information from a lower one. Thus in contrast to strictly mathematical methods, system analysis is to reflect properly the specific structure of the TS, uncertainty of information used as well as duly synthesize formalized and heuristic
assessments of the CS performance;
The main provisions of the concept of system analyses (SA) and decision proving (DP) are as follows:
– their purpose is to prove the optimal (best) decision which is accepted for creating and maintenance of an analysis object in indeterminacy conditions;
– imperative (unconditional demand) of proving a decision – an assessment of its quality;
– optimal decisions are results of reasonable synthesis of unformalized (heuristic) and formalized (quantity) assessments;
– quantity assessment of the quality of a decision is made on the basis of several indices (criteria) given by a person responsible for taking decisions in the process of problem definition.validity of a decision taken is secured by a selection from a quantity of conditionally adequate
decisions which differ from conditionally optimal ones in 1) specified (for heuristic reasons) significance level of a decision and
2) Calculation of possible statistical errors;