سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۲

محل انتشار: سومین کنفرانس منطقه ای تغییر اقلیم

تعداد صفحات: ۵

نویسنده(ها):

Meshkatee – Climate Change Office, De artment of Environment Center for Environment Research, pardisan ,AJotural par!, Hemmat Motorway, Tehran

چکیده:

To provide an insight in to what happen if the matter of the GHGs emission won’s be dealt with properly six experiments have been designed . these experiments were carries out by Implementing combinations of two GCMs (HadCM2, and ECHAM4) , three emission scenatios , and theree different climate. These combinations represent three GHGs emission condutuins (globally) i.e., low emission rate, keeping it in the present rate, and funally high emission rat. Low emission combination resulted in increase in temperature ranges from 1 to 1.5C changes for the seconds combination range from 2.5C to 1.4 C third combination resulted in increase in temperature ranges from 5.9 to 7.7C .
The same combinations were used to portray precipitation changes in the country . Resulted changes vary between -11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate, -30.9% to 30% of the baselines for medium emission rate, and -58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate