سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۲
محل انتشار: چهارمین همایش ملی انرژی
تعداد صفحات: ۱۰
Siemek – University of Mining and Metallurgy, Drilling, Oil-Gas Faculty, Kraków,Poland
Nagy – University of Mining and Metallurgy, Drilling, Oil-Gas Faculty, Kraków,Poland
Rychlicki – University of Mining and Metallurgy, Drilling, Oil-Gas Faculty, Kraków,Poland
The paper describes the possible scenario of development of gas sector in the Poland. An adaptation of worldwide known Hubbert model is implemented to the Poland situation based upon Startzman modification. The model presented describes hypothetical natural gas demand, based on average trend of the economy development during the last decades; the model considers natural production/demand maximum of energy carriers. The prognosis is loaded with an error resulting of the averaging data related to yearly increase of the national gross product. The adapted model expresses good compatibility with the natural gas demand of the period 1995-2000. The simple structure of the model enables possibility of yearly updating, and eventual correction of the natural gas demand. In cases of untypical changes of the economy growth rate (long stagnation, extreme long and accelerated development), the prognosis error may increase.