سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۶

محل انتشار: پنجمین کنفرانس بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

تعداد صفحات: ۶

نویسنده(ها):

Bobrovskiy – President of Innovation Youth Fund “Electrical Technologies of the Subterranean

چکیده:

Analogy between preparation of Kuril-Kamchatka tsunamigenic earthquake with magnitude 8.5 occurred1952/11/04(05) and the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic process`2006 is discussed (Bobrovskiy 2006a). Here we show the similarity of situation at the beginning of winter’۲۰۰۶ and at the beginning of winter’۲۰۰۵ when short-term regional (for Kamchatka) forecast of strong earthquake on winter-spring’۲۰۰۶ was formulated by author. Catastrophic earthquake (M7.6) realized the short-term forecast in the north of Kamchatka 2006/04/20. Now short-term forerunners of strong earthquake in Kamchatka indicate that the seismic catastrophe between northern Kamchatka and Middle of Kuril Arc would be expected just in 2007.
Short-term forecast of strong kamchatkian earthquake on winter-spring’2006 was formulated on the base of Gutenberg-Alfven-Båth cosmo-meteo-tectonic electro-network global conception and Descartes- Mendeleyev-Vernadskiy-Larin-ALANGOA model of the tectonic event’s centre. You can read about the basis of Cosmo-Meteo-Tectonic in next articles (Bobrovskiy 2006b, 2006c, 2006d). Forecast and its explanatory materials were presented on the conference “Decrease of seismic risks in Kamchatka-Kuril zone” taken place 07 of December, 2005 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy. After this, forecast and its widen explanatory materials were published in All-Russian institute for Scientific and Technical Information Russian Academy of Science (Bobrovskiy 2005). Forecast was realized by earthquake with magnitude M7.6 (2006/04/20 23:25:05 UT) in the north of Kamchatka peninsula. The experts of IYF ETS observed short-term and operative-term preparation of this earthquake and its starting. They analyzed the results of subterranean electro-motive force’s through multichannel measurements which were carried out due to the electrodes being in the three subterranean bore-pits (Bobrovskiy 2006a). Erice International school of geophysics – 26th workshop on «EARTHQUAKE AND SHAKING PROBABILITIES: HELPING SOCIETY TO MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICE» (۱۸-۲۴ of October, 2006, Sicily, Italy) was the place where evolution of current importance of seismic activity in the Kuril- Kamchatka region was discussed (Bobrovskiy 2006a). At that it was given special consideration to analogy between the preparation of the Kuril-Kamchatka tsunamigenic earthquake with magnitude (M) 8.5 occurred 1952/11/04(05), and the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic process`2006, which in detail was discussed later after Kuril earthquake 2006/11/15 with M8.3 (Bobrovskiy 2006e). Kuril-Kamchatka seismic process`2006-2007, possibly, indicated the formation of the gigantic seismic center between the north of Kamchatka and the middle of Kuril Islands arc. Official terminology is used below published in hand-book of committee of the scientific and technical terminology of Academy of Science USSR (Siphorov 1990): operative-term forecast (time from “zero” to one month); short-term forecast (time from one month to one year); medium-term forecast (time from one year to five years); long-term forecast (time from five years to fifteen years); superlong-term forecast (time from fifteen years to ad infinitum).