سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۵

محل انتشار: هفتمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی عمران

تعداد صفحات: ۷

نویسنده(ها):

P.Daneshmand – Program Preformance Manager,

چکیده:

In any kind of industry , usually because we are running a project which is time, cost or quality critical, we try to equip managers with the ability to discriminate between good and poor practices, run the best management process to achieve the project goals and concern uncertainty on different issues such as activity duration, Because of conservatively in construction usually we think that activities likely to delay the project most often ate those based on CPM or CPA with a large amount of uncertainty. Schedule analysis is a generic term for several project planning methods of which two of the most popular ones are CPM and PERT. Although in construction , CPM and PERT are been using widely for scheduling , but due to some limitations, of these scheduling methods, which considers random activity durations for estimating PPC.
The prime target of this paper is explaining the Schedule Risk Analysis steps to get better results in regard to PPC. Then after such an analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation method for a feasibility construction management case study, paper briefly tries to highlight the benefits of schedule risk assessment and the pitfalls of relying on a traditional CPM analysis alone in such a project . These results can lead to some dramatic changes and redirecting of the program.