سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۶

محل انتشار: پنجمین کنفرانس بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

تعداد صفحات: ۱۱

نویسنده(ها):

Abdullabekov – G.A. Mavlyanov Institute of seismology of AS RUz
Azizov – G.A. Mavlyanov Institute of seismology of AS RUz

چکیده:

In Uzbekistan large-scale study of the problems of the prognosis of earthquakes are begun after the Tashkent earthquakes of 1966 year. As a result of the regime observations on Tashkent, Fergana and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons during many years long rows of uninterrupted measurements have been obtained. As a result of joint analysis of predictors before a number of concrete strong earthquakes it is shown that the first seismic, geophysical and deformation fields react on the process of earthquake preparing (long-term – ۱-۳ years – predictors), then the Earth’s magnetic field and some parameters of underground waters react (time – from 3-4 months up to 1 year). Short-term predictors (hydrogeodynamical parameters) are displayed in time up to 1 month before a strong earthquake. Authors suggest organize prognostic works only on the base of complex methods since there is no today both the unified method of prognosis and universal predictor.