سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۴

محل انتشار: سمپوزیوم برآورد عدم قطعیت در مهندسی سد

تعداد صفحات: ۹

نویسنده(ها):

M. ZARGHAAMI – Corresponding Expert, Mahab Ghodss consulting Engineers, Tehran, Iran

چکیده:

Iran is an arid and semi-arid country. By the year, 2025 Iran will fall in the category of countries with critical water scarcity. The uneven distribution of water and growth of population have led to the present water shortages in major parts of the country. Since the center and Southeast of the country is facing with high water shortage, an important way to solve the problems of those parts and improve the socio-economic life of the people is inter-basin water transfer. The choice among alternative inter-basin water transfer projects is generally based on the fundamental objective of cost minimization. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability; the technical, environment and social implications in integrated water resources planning, in addition to economics. Decision making in this environment needs a hierarchy of criteria and a multi- criteria decision making model. Various uncertainties appear in assumptions, information, parameters and commentary of these models. It increases complexity of models. Also sensitivity analysis (Simulation) could not satisfy modeling uncertainties. Again traditional MCDM methods couldn’t include linguistic uncertainties (as low, high, etc.). Solution way is using Fuzzy MCDM tools. This study first investigated criteria of other countries for assessment water development projects and then national acts of Iran. The experts constructed the hierarchy of criteria after negotiation and revision. Very uncertain criteria will arise by using this hierarchy, and this paper will discuss these uncertain criteria in a case study